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Visit crispy2000's column >>

CRISPY2000

Articles Posted: 14  Links Seeded: 2204
Member Since: 6/2009  Last Seen: 5/21/2012

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Record 1.2 Million People Fall Out Of Labor Force In One Month, Labor Force Participation Rate Tumbles To Fresh 30 Year Low

Seeded on Fri Feb 3, 2012 2:50 PM EST
Read ArticleArticle Source: This Is The Government: Your Legal Right To Redeem Your Money Market Account Has Been Denied | zero hedge
us-news, economy, employment, statistics, labor-participation-rate
Seeded by crispy2000
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A month ago, we joked when we said that for Obama to get the unemployment rate to negative by election time, all he has to do is to crush the labor force participation rate to about 55%. Looks like the good folks at the BLS heard us: it appears that the people not in the labor force exploded by an unprecedented record 1.2 million. No, that's not a typo: 1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force in one month!

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  • Public Discussion (18)
crispy2000

So as the labor force increased from 153.9 million to 154.4 million, the non institutional population increased by 242.3 million meaning, those not in the labor force surged from 86.7 million to 87.9 million. Which means that the civilian labor force tumbled to a fresh 30 year low of 63.7% as the BLS is seriously planning on eliminating nearly half of the available labor pool from the unemployment calculation.

  • 8 votes
Reply#1 - Fri Feb 3, 2012 2:50 PM EST
Mr. Roger Rabbit

Gotta make those numbers look good before the election. Don't you be spoiling Obama's re-election with your little honesty and facts.

  • 12 votes
#1.1 - Fri Feb 3, 2012 3:12 PM EST
James Andre

This appears to be completely made up. Please vet articles before posting to Rational Progressives group.

After accounting for the annual adjustments to the population
controls, the employment-population ratio (58.5 percent) rose in
January, while the civilian labor force participation rate held at
63.7 percent.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

  • 1 vote
#1.2 - Fri Feb 3, 2012 3:13 PM EST
Jesse-Az

James... do you read your own links?

In January, 2.8 million persons were marginally attached to the labor
force, essentially unchanged from a year earlier. (The data are not
seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force,
wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime
in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because
they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.
(See table A-16.)

They did not include the population increase in their report... the seeded link does include that population adjustment.

  • 5 votes
#1.3 - Fri Feb 3, 2012 4:39 PM EST
James Andre

They did not include the population increase in their report...

Even so, that does not validate the claims made:

essentially unchanged from a year earlier

No one "fell" out of the labor force; the numbers are as reported, just as they are every month. If "Tyler Durden" wants people to count as he does, it will take more than a few unsubstantiated charts thrown up on a web page.

  • 1 vote
#1.4 - Fri Feb 3, 2012 4:51 PM EST
skeptic-227981

James' point is correct. The BLS reports on 'marginally attached' every month in those reports. Those numbers are included in the under/unemployment rate, a rate which is different from the actual unemployment rate.

In January, 2.8 million persons were marginally attached to the labor
force, essentially unchanged from a year earlier. (The data are not
seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force,
wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime
in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because
they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.
(See table A-16.)

Another point glossed over is:

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was
revised from +100,000 to +157,000, and the change for December was
revised from +200,000 to +203,000. Monthly revisions result from
additional sample reports and the monthly recalculation of seasonal
factors. The annual benchmark process also contributed to these
revisions.

So there were also 160,000 more jobs between November and December which weren't included in the previous calculations, which probably contributes to the overall unemployment percent reduction to its current 8.3%

  • 1 vote
#1.5 - Fri Feb 3, 2012 5:23 PM EST
crispy2000

Readers can check the data from the BLS for themselves:

http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab1.htm

You can easily check the "labor participation rate" or the "not in labor force" statistics. Click the "Retrieve data" button on the bottom of the form, and you'll get the data. On the new page, click the "More formatting options" link and you can have the data and a nice graph by checking the "include graphs" box, and clicking "retrieve data".

  • 6 votes
#1.6 - Fri Feb 3, 2012 6:29 PM EST
Jesse-Az

James, what the BLS did was count the population growth, but not as unemployed (even though they even state they were) because they had simply not looked in 4 weeks. This means that population increased by 1.2 million (lowering unemployment) far more than the 240k jobs. Even though the people are unemployed they don't count as unemployed.... hmm...

  • 4 votes
#1.7 - Fri Feb 3, 2012 6:47 PM EST
James Andre

Even though the people are unemployed they don't count as unemployed

Exactly. However, the numbers are counted the same way every month, and every year. The UE rate dipped last summer for the same reason - demographic changes, not the raw number of jobs.

That's the way things are counted. Whether they count the way some like, or not, the numbers still do not warrant the characterizations made.

What this article does is the equivalent of saying "When you count retirees, small children, and foreigners on a visa, the jobless rate SKYROCKETS!!!"

The numbers are calculated a certain way, and that is how we have decided to measure month-to-month changes. If "Tyler" wants to propose a new method to the Labor Bureau, I am sure they will consider it.

  • 2 votes
#1.8 - Fri Feb 3, 2012 7:19 PM EST
Reply
Carolyn Johansen

What happened to them all? Most are crowded together in a relative's house. They are making the rounds of the food pantries and pawning anything they have left of any value to help pay the bills. Many more are homeless and living in the woods and under bridges. Since the homeless shelters are full to bursting, and charitable giving is at an all time low, they will call those campsites home for as long as the local bully cops and the selfish and snobby city officials allow them to remain. Real unemployment is over 20% and the actual numbers of jobless and hopeless in the US is growing fast and growing angry.

  • 4 votes
Reply#2 - Fri Feb 3, 2012 6:20 PM EST
lovemyplanet-400560

crispy,

You might enjoy this site. It's subscription only but there are charts and such that are available to view for free, including the following chart for unemployment. It ain't pretty!

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

  • 3 votes
Reply#3 - Sat Feb 4, 2012 9:45 PM EST
crispy2000

Good information. Thanks lovemyplanet-400560!

  • 4 votes
#3.1 - Mon Feb 6, 2012 1:38 PM EST
BD Styers

The irony isn't lost that 2012 is an election year. For three years of the incumbent term we have suffered job loss. We are in recovery -- take it to the voting booth. Wear blinders.

  • 1 vote
#3.2 - Tue Feb 7, 2012 3:22 AM EST
lovemyplanet-400560

You might also find this interesting:

FactCheck’s double standards on the stimulus

By James D. Agresti and Schuyler Dugle
January 20, 2012

...Yet, FactCheck claimed the opposite was “the truth” based upon a Congressional Budget Office report estimating that the stimulus increased “the number of people employed by between 1.4 million and 3.3 million.” However, FactCheck neglected to mention an important caveat in this report. This is the disclaimer that the data are “are not as helpful in determining” the effects of the stimulus “as might be supposed because isolating the effects would require knowing what path the economy would have taken in the absence of the law.”...

...What we can factually determine, however, is the approximate change in employment in the wake of the stimulus, just as FactCheck did with the payroll tax holiday. As the graph below shows, the U.S. has currently lost 937,000 jobs since the stimulus passed and had lost 2.8 million jobs at the time when FactCheck said the stimulus created jobs.

...So, if FactCheck considers a gain of 1.4 million jobs to be “evidence” that the payroll tax holiday created jobs, why didn’t FactCheck consider the loss of 2.8 million jobs to be evidence that the stimulus destroyed jobs?...

http://www.justfactsdaily.com/factchecks-double-standards-on-the-stimulus

There's a nice little graph there, too...

  • 3 votes
#3.3 - Tue Feb 7, 2012 9:56 PM EST
Reply
McSpocky

That article failed to take into account the increase in population, so it is inaccurate.

Right-wing media are rushing to put a negative spin on newly released jobs numbers showing a drop in the unemployment rate and a net increase in jobs by parroting the discredited claim that government data show that "1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force" last month. In fact, as economic experts have explained, that number reflected an increase in population from 2010 Census figures and is not the result of how many people "dropped out" of the labor force last month.

http://mediamatters.org/research/201202030017

  • 4 votes
Reply#4 - Wed Feb 15, 2012 7:06 AM EST
crispy2000

He explained his figures as follows:

So as the labor force increased from 153.9 million to 154.4 million, the non institutional population increased by 242.3 million meaning, those not in the labor force surged from 86.7 million to 87.9 million. Which means that the civilian labor force tumbled to a fresh 30 year low of 63.7%

Yes, he acknowledged that the population (labor force) increased. The labor participation rate tells the same story as the "not in labor force" figure: the number of people unemployed has gone up. Significantly. The labor participation rate hasn't been this low since 1984.

I've always been skeptical (regardless of who's in office) of the "new jobless claims" figure. The labor participation rate is closer to what I'd expect as a measurement of how many people are out of work.

  • 4 votes
#4.1 - Wed Feb 15, 2012 11:34 AM EST
James Andre

the number of people unemployed has gone up. Significantly. The labor participation rate hasn't been this low since 1984.

I don't get what you're trying to accomplish.

You claim labor participation is most significant, and then you site unemployment .

The labor participation rate has barely moved:

Jan 2007-2008: -0.2%

Jan 2008-2009: -0.5%

Jan 2009-2010: -0.9%

Jan 2010-2011: -0.6%

And most significantly(according to you):

Jan 1984-2012: +0.3%!

An increase. These numbers would seem to indicate that labor participation is one of the least telling indicators. And, of course, we know unemployment is moving downward.


  • 2 votes
#4.2 - Wed Feb 15, 2012 12:49 PM EST
Reply
Dog_Blue

Liberals can't or won't crasp the mathematical deceit foisted upon the citizens of the country in the name of politics. There is no truth when it comes to the "progressives".

  • 4 votes
Reply#5 - Wed Feb 15, 2012 11:40 AM EST
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